Program (by speaker) > Figueiredo Ana

We document new facts about the cyclicality of worker-occupation mismatch in the US. In down- turns, workers that lose their jobs are more mismatched than average, consistent with the cleansing effect of recessions. Surprisingly, new hires from unemployment are also more mismatched in re- cessions, and this holds for over- and under-qualification. We build a model of learning about skill mismatch with aggregate productivity and uncertainty shocks that make mismatch more difficult to assess in recessions. This setup is able to explain, simultaneously, several empirical patterns. We explore the role of occupational switching as a source of the countercyclical uncertainty and document suggestive evidence pointing to this channel.